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University of Iowa News Release

 

Jan. 9, 2008

Clinton back on top of Iowa Electronic Markets after New Hampshire win

Hillary Clinton re-took the lead on the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Democratic nomination market while the price of Barack Obama's contracts collapsed following Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries.

John McCain, meanwhile, continued his lead in the Republican nomination market after his Granite State win.

The price of a Clinton contract, which had dipped below 20 cents in recent days, was back to 55.3 cents at midnight CST Tuesday following her win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. The figure means that IEM investors believe there is a 55.3 percent probability of Clinton winning the Democratic Party's nomination for president.

The price of an Obama contract, meanwhile, fell back to 39.5 cents at midnight after his second-place finish in the primary. Obama had taken the lead on the Democratic market Friday after winning the Iowa caucuses and his contracts were priced at 66 cents early Tuesday before dropping later that night.

Contracts on the two nomination markets will pay off after each party officially nominates its presidential candidate at their national conventions this summer.

As of 9 a.m. CST today (Wednesday, Jan. 9), Clinton's contracts were trading at 54.2 cents and Obama's at 39.3 cents. John Edwards' contract was trading at 2.4 cents and the Rest of Field was trading at less than 1 cent.

Meanwhile, the Republican market was largely unchanged after the primary results. McCain, who had been leading the market for several weeks, continued to lead after his win in New Hampshire with a contract price of 37 cents at 9 a.m. this morning. The price means IEM investors believe McCain has a 37 percent probability of winning the Republican nomination.

Rudy Giuliani was second with a contract price of 25.2 cents, Mitt Romney third at 19.7 cents, and Mike Huckabee fourth at 19 cents.

The Republican Rest of Field contract was trading at 2 cents and Fred Thompson's contract was trading at 1.6 cents.

Trading was busy on the IEM Tuesday, with more than 23,000 shares traded on the Democratic market. Clinton's contracts alone had more than 11,000 trades. The Republican market saw more than 12,000 contracts traded.

The IEM is a real-money political futures prediction market operated by the UI's Tippie College of Business. Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

The IEM can be found online at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem. Nominating market prices can be found at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_Quotes.html.

STORY SOURCE: University of Iowa News Service, 300 Plaza Centre One, Suite 371, Iowa City, Iowa 52242-2500.

MEDIA CONTACT: Tom Snee, 319-384-0010, tom-snee@uiowa.edu.