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University of Iowa News Release

 

Jan. 3, 2008

McCain, Clinton lead Iowa Electronic Markets on caucus day

John McCain continued his jump on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) and now trails only Mitt Romney on the Republican nomination market on the day the Iowa caucuses kick off the 2008 presidential nominating process.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton continued to hold her long-time lead on the Democratic market.

McCain recently moved into second place on the IEM's Republican presidential nomination market. The value of his contract was 25.1 cents as of 9 a.m. CST Thursday, which means IEM investors believe there is a 25.1 percent probability that McCain will be the Republican nominee. His contracts traded for as little as 8 cents as recently as Dec. 7.

Leading the Republican market was Mitt Romney, with a contract value of 26.4 cents. Rudy Giuliani, whose contract had the highest value on the Republican market for several months, continued his late decline that has seen his contracts fall in value to 23 cents.

Other Republican contract values include Mike Huckabee at 13.2 cents, Fred Thompson at 3 cents and Rest of Field at 7.1 cents.

Meanwhile, Clinton leads the Democratic market with a contract value of 57.5 cents. Barack Obama is second at 30.8 cents and John Edwards is third at 10.6 cents. The Democratic Rest of Field contract is valued at 1.6 cents.

The IEM markets will pay off when the two parties officially name their presidential nominees at their respective conventions this summer. The markets do not attempt to predict the winners of the Iowa caucuses.

The Iowa Electronic Markets is operated by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business as a real-money futures prediction market. Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

The IEM can be found online at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem. Nominating market prices can be found at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_Quotes.html.

STORY SOURCE: University of Iowa News Services, 300 Plaza Centre One, Suite 371, Iowa City, Iowa 52242-2500.

MEDIA CONTACT: Tom Snee, 319-384-0010, tom-snee@uiowa.edu