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e-mail: george-mccrory@uiowa.edu

Release: Nov. 16, 2001

Iowa Economic Forecast projects slow state income growth for 2001, 2002

IOWA CITY, Iowa – In its latest Iowa Economic Forecast, the University of Iowa Institute for Economic Research predicts slow, but positive personal income growth for Iowa for 2001, but slowing further to an annual growth of just .8 percent in the first quarter of 2002.

Beth Ingram, Institute director and UI professor of economics, said the forecast for real personal income growth in Iowa stands at 1.3 percent for 2001, remaining the same as the September projection. The Institute revised its forecast for overall personal income growth in 2002 to 1.9 percent, down from a
3 percent forecast in September.

This forecast is based on state income data through the second quarter of 2001 and national income data through the third quarter of 2001. The Institute released its report today (Friday, Nov. 16) at the Iowa Economic Forecasting Council meeting in Des Moines.

The Institute also continued its prediction of declining rates of state revenue growth when compared to historical standards, with revenue growth expected to be between 3 and 4 percent over the next five years.

Its forecast is for employment in the state shows decline of .7 percent in 2001 and for growth of .6 percent in 2002, down from a forecast of 1.5 percent growth in September.

For complete forecast data, see the Institute's website at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/econ/econinst/. Ingram can be reached for comment today after 2 p.m. at (319) 330-5170