CONTACT: GEORGE MCCRORY
100 Old Public Library
Iowa City IA 52242
(319) 384-0012; fax (319) 384-0024
Release: July 16, 2001
Iowa Economic Forecast projects 2 percent income growth for 2001
IOWA CITY, Iowa -- In its latest Iowa Economic Forecast, the University
of Iowa Institute for Economic Research predicts real personal income growth
in Iowa will increase by 2 percent in 2001, down from a 3 percent estimate
This forecast is based on state income data through the fourth quarter of
2000 and national income data through the first quarter of 2001, said Beth
Ingram, Institute director and UI professor of economics. The Institute released
its report today (Monday, July 16) at the Iowa Economic Forecasting Council
meeting in Des Moines.
Ingram said the fourth quarter was especially weak in Iowa; real personal
income grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, in line with the national growth
"We expect this to pick up during the first quarter of 2001, but be
followed by two weak quarters in which real personal income is expected to
grow by 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2001 and decline by 0.2 percent
in the third quarter of 2001," Ingram said. "The national economic
forecasters are saying the economy is skating on thin ice -- we're not in
a recession right now, but the future is very uncertain."
State revenue growth is expected to be 2.8 percent fiscal year 2001, down
from 3.7 percent from the March forecast. The revenue growth projection for
fiscal year 2002 is 5.3 percent, down from 5.5 percent in the March forecast.
The Institute is forecasting no growth in employment this year, noting a
.03 percent decline for 2001 but a 2.0 percent increase for 2002.