CONTACT: GEORGE MCCRORY
100 Old Public Library
Iowa City IA 52242
(319) 384-0012; fax (319) 384-0024
Release: Aug. 17,
IEM predict head-to-head contest for 2000 presidential
IOWA CITY, Iowa -- Contrary to current opinion polls
that show George W. Bush leading in the presidential race, the Iowa Electronic
Markets (IEM) have Al Gore and Bush in a head-to-head race approaching the
November presidential election.
In the IEM, the University of Iowa's real-money market
where traders buy and sell political futures, current market prices indicate
that Gore will secure 48.6 percent of the popular vote while Bush will capture
49 percent, with the Reform Party candidate getting 2 percent.
According to UI accounting professor and IEM co-director
Joyce Berg, the market has been predicting that the outcome of the election
will be very close since mid-May. The recent Republican and Democratic conventions
and the candidates' choices of running mates had no significant effect on
"There's generally a sharp swing in the poll results
during the conventions, but those sharp swings aren't in the IEM prices,"
Berg said. "To IEM traders, there was no news in the vice-presidential choices
or the conventions so far that would affect the outcome of the election."
The IEM has forecasted election results with great
accuracy, tracking the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the last three
presidential elections within an average of less than 2 percent.
Six faculty members at the University of Iowa Tippie
College of Business operate the markets as a research and teaching tool. See
the markets online at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem
for the latest prices.
For more information on the IEM contact, Jeanine Alcocer,
IEM Operations Manager at